The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects global air cargo volumes to increase by 2.4% year-over-year, reaching approximately 71.6 million tonnes in 2026. Cargo revenues are projected to rise 2.1% to $158 billion, up from $155 billion in 2025.

According to IATA’s December Global Outlook, air cargo demand will continue to grow, although at a slower pace than in 2025, reflecting the softening of global trade. “While trade growth may slow in 2026, air cargo is well-positioned to remain robust, benefiting from AI-driven investment, growing demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods, and the structural shift toward e-commerce,” the report detailed.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, highlighted air cargo’s resilience against the backdrop of protectionist trade policies and tariff volatility. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, had previously warned that forwarders should expect heightened competition for market share as demand softens, which would put downward pressure on rates.

Regional cargo traffic growth presents a mixed picture, the December Global Otlook report wrote, indicating a prrojected 2.6% growth for the industry in 2026. Asia-Pacific should see growth at 6% while other regions should expect approximately 2% in growth. The outlook further noted growth in the Middle East is expected to plateau while North America would see a marginal decrease by 0.5%.

“The resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive,” Walsh said, highlighting the central role it continues to have. “As trade flows adapt to a protectionist U.S. tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments. Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the U.S. found new markets.”

Source: IATA Press Release, IATA Global Outlook