The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) expects air cargo demand to grow by 5% in 2025. This forecast aligns with the IMF’s latest prediction of global GDP growth reaching 3.3% for 2025-2026.

Glyn Hughes, TIACA’s Director General, explained that this growth projection is based on economic stability, an increase in e-commerce, and a growing middle class that is driving international trade. He cited data from Xeneta, indicating that load factors in the Asia-Pacific region are approximately 80% which suggests aircraft are operating close to full capacity.

However, Hughes warned that while the current growth projection carries a “mild level of risk,” the risk level is increasing due to political developments and changes in policy. He noted that tariffs and trade barriers complicate the situation in addition to decreasing consumer confidence, which could negatively impact demand.

Another factor that may hinder air cargo growth is the possibility of a shift towards ocean shipping, particularly if commercial transits resume through the Suez Canal. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain regarding shipping in the Red Sea region. Additionally, ongoing restrictions on Russian airspace are likely to continue and flight options will remain limited.

For e-commerce shippers, uncertainties persist surrounding the U.S. de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese imports. Hughes noted a potential regulation being discussed that could require additional shipment information, which would inevitably increase costs and administrative burdens.

Source: Air Cargo News