US retailers do not anticipate a slowdown in imports for the second half of 2024, driven by a near-record surge in August as retailers fast-track shipments ahead of potential longshore labor strikes at East and Gulf Coast ports. Despite earlier predictions that imports would taper off due to front-loading of cargo earlier this year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates have upgraded their forecasts, expecting monthly year-over-year increases in imports through the end of the year. August imports are forecast to rise by 19.2%, with further gains expected in September and October.

Concerns over labor disputes, including the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) seeking an 80% wage increase over a six-year contract, have led to shifts in shipping routes and early deliveries. The ILA has issued a 60-day strike notice ahead of the Sept. 30 expiration of its current contract. US imports from Asia have seen year-over-year growth since October 2023, and elevated import levels are expected to continue through to Lunar New Year 2025, with factories in Asia closing for holiday celebrations.
Source: Journal of Commerce