A robust Q3, 2024 for air freight leads to high hopes for continued strong performance in Q4. Global cargo demand continued its double-digit growth, rising 11% in August. Lufthansa Cargo noted unusually high freight rates for this time of year, driven by supply and demand pressures, including geopolitical factors.

Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, reported double-digit demand growth in August, contrary to the typical summer slowdown. He predicts a busy Q4. “If you look at the typical seasonality patterns in e-commerce, it really grows a lot in Q4 relative to Q3.” He said export flights from Asia could already be 84%-88% full.

Chinese e-commerce giant Temu, which saw 37 million app downloads in July, is expected to drive significant air cargo demand. “[That’s] 37 million consumers to potentially buy stuff on that platform,” van de Wouw pointed out.

Lufthansa Cargo confirmed that peak season rates are expected in the coming months. FedEx and UPS also anticipate solid international and U.S. domestic demand in Q4. Van de Wouw warned that rate changes would vary by tradelane. For instance, rates from India or Bangladesh could double or triple, while other routes might see rates 20%-30% lower than last year. He expects the most significant increase to be on trades out of Asia.

Source: The Loadstar