The global ocean freight market is facing a fraught outlook in 2025, a new DHL update finds, characterized by economic headwinds, geopolitical tensions and industry restructuring.
Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2025, the weakest since 2009, excluding the pandemic. The Americas will be hit hardest, with growth in the U.S. at just 2%, Canada at 1.8%, and Mexico at 0.6%. But even in this tough climate, container volumes have remained strong. In 2024, global container trade grew 7.7%, led by exports from Asia-Pacific, especially China. For 2025, trade is forecast to grow another 4.3%, with Asia-Pacific export lanes continuing to lead.
A record 9 million TEUs of new vessel capacity is on order. Still, only two-thirds of it will be ready before 2028, which means the fleet will grow slowly.
Port congestion remains a significant challenge, particularly in Europe. As of early April, more than 935,000 TEU of cargo was waiting at North European and Mediterranean anchorages, accounting for 32% of the global total. Key ports such as Hamburg, Rotterdam, and Antwerp are experiencing severe congestion and berthing delays.
The ocean freight sector is dealing with more complex regulations, including:
- The implementation of the EU’s electronic security screening system (ICS2 Release 3) for ocean, road, and rail freight on April 1, 2025.
- Ongoing changes to U.S. tariff policies, including new tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian goods.
- A proposed 25% tariff on countries importing oil from Venezuela, potentially affecting major economies like China and India.
Source: American Shipper
