The container shipping industry faces deep uncertainty amid a weakening global trade outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its U.S. GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.8%, down from 2.7% projected earlier this year. The World Trade Organization (WTO) also expects global merchandise trade to shrink by -0.2% this year.
Maritime analyst Drewry has downgraded its global port throughput forecast with expectations for global container handling volumes (including loaded boxes, empties, and transshipment moves, inbound and outbound) to fall by -1% in 2025. North America, comprising the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will likely be hit hardest. Drewry projects container volumes to drop by -5.5% in 2025 (approximately 4 million TEU), followed by another -4.6% drop in 2026. Greater China will see a -4.8% decline in 2025 but rebound with 1.6% growth in 2026 as it finds new markets.
At the center of the disruption is trade policy uncertainty. Simon Heaney, Senior Manager at Drewry, said the lack of a clear strategy makes it nearly impossible to predict what’s next. “Any predictions… have an extremely short shelf life,” he said. “We’re in coin-flip territory as we await what happens during the 90-day pause on tariffs, which will end in early July.”
Ongoing tariffs and protectionist measures are already impacting container flows. Drewry estimates U.S. imports from China could fall by 4.5 million TEU and fall by an additional 0.3 million TEU from other countries as shippers respond to tariff uncertainty and consider relocating production.
According to Drewry, countries such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, Malaysia, Poland, and Turkey are likely to see increased traffic volumes amid sourcing shifts. Southeast Asia is forecasted to post double-digit growth over the next two years.
Source: World Cargo News
