The container shipping industry faces deep uncertainty amid a weakening global trade outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its U.S. GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.8%, down from 2.7%. The World Trade Organization (WTO) also expects global merchandise trade to shrink by -0.2% this year.

Maritime analyst Drewry has downgraded its global port throughput forecast by -1% in 2025. North America will likely be hit hardest with container volumes to drop by -5.5% in 2025, followed by another -4.6% drop in 2026. Greater China will see a -4.8% decline in 2025 but may rebound with 1.6% growth in 2026.

At the center of the disruption is trade policy uncertainty. Simon Heaney, Senior Manager at Drewry, said the lack of a clear strategy makes it nearly impossible to predict what’s next. With the a 90-day tariff pause ending in July,  he said the industry was in “coin-flip territory”.

However, sourcing shifts may benefit emerging markets. India, Brazil, Vietnam, Malaysia, Poland, and Turkey are likely to see increased traffic volumes. Southeast Asia is forecasted to post double-digit growth over the next two years.

Source: World Cargo News