A recent Sea-Intelligence report has revealed that ship capacity on the major East-West trade routes has become increasingly unpredictable since 2020. These large fluctuations in shipping capacity on key trade routes pose challenges for ports.
“This increased ‘lumpiness’ in cargo flows creates operational challenges for ports and terminals, which are designed to handle a smooth and predictable flow of vessels and cargo,” wrote Sea-Intelligence.
According to the report, the average volatility in weekly capacity on Asia–Northern Europe routes remained relatively stable between 2011 and 2019, fluctuating by an average of 12.3% each week. However, post-pandemic date from 2021 to 2025 shows that average volatility more than doubled, rising to 29.6%. Asia–Mediterranean routes have likewise experienced a similar rise, with capacity volatility increasing from 13.9% to 29.1%.
In contrast, although the increase is significant, capacity volatility on the Trans-Pacific route grew by 50%, making the impact less severe. Asia-U.S. West Coast volatility rose from 18.6% to 30.3%, while Asia–U.S. East Coast increased from 21.9% to 32.5%.
Alan Murphy, Sea-Intelligence’s CEO, noted that the uneven cargo flows further complicates supply chain challenges at Northern Europe’s ports. “The data indicates that the large increase in weekly capacity volatility on Asia-Europe is a significant underlying factor contributing to the ongoing port congestion problems in Europe.”
Source: Sea-Intelligence
