Global air cargo demand rose 4% year-over-year (y/y) in October. This stronger-than-anticipated performance comes despite reduced frontloading and the end of the U.S. de minimis exemption on August 29. However, capacity growth outpaced demand, increasing 5% y/y for the second consecutive month.

As reported by Supply Chain Dive, it cited Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, who noted that widespread cost-cutting announcements across the industry point to a cautious market outlook.

Xeneta’s data also revealed a -6% year-over-year decline in Europe–North America volumes in October. Van de Wouw, questioned whether the decline in Trans-Atlantic trade could signal a broader cooling in global trade. The Europe-North America route is typically focused on general air cargo, Xeneta explained, which would have been less exposed to the U.S. de minimis ban. Van de Wouw called the decline in volumes “a harsh signal”.

With demand softening, forwarders are expected to compete for market share, further pressuring rates. “When it comes to procuring freight transportation services, that will make the market more favorable to the buyers, not the sellers,” van de Wouw said in statement. In his opinion, he suggested that many shippers would rather opt for slightly higher freight costs if it meant a comparable increase in sales, rather than cutting freight expenses and losing revenue.

While airfreight has seen short-term gains driven by economic disruption and tariff uncertainty, van de Wouw cautioned that growth prospects remain limited heading into next year. According to the press release, he said, “… as the noise starts to subside, the industry is being reminded that there is only limited growth in the general freight market and that is causing lower expectations for 2026.”

Source: Supply Chain Dive, Xeneta