A significant wave of blank sailings is set to impact Asia–U.S. container trade lanes, with U.S. East and Gulf Coast services facing the sharpest cuts. Sea-Intelligence reports that nine scheduled sailings on the Asia–U.S. East Coast route will be blanked in May 5–11 (Week 19), reducing capacity by 42%. The U.S. West Coast will have 10 blank sailings from April 28 to May 3, cutting capacity by 28%, and again from May 12 to 18, lowering capacity by 25%.
Sea-Intelligence has indicated that these cancellations are being announced with minimal notice, a strong sign that container demand is sharply falling. The analyst commented, “Presently, this is likely one of the best up-to-date indications of the impact on tactical container demand.” In a previous assessment, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, had predicted that last-minute blank sailings to the U.S. would be likely if there was a notable decline in bookings.
Drewry’s Blank Sailings Tracker confirms the trend, recording 72 planned cancellations between now and the end of May. Of these, 56% affect the Trans-Pacific trades, with 31% on Asia–Europe routes and 14% on Trans-Atlantic routes. Drewry noted, “A rise in cancelled sailings is expected in coming weeks, predominantly in the Trans-Pacific Eastbound, booking cancellations continue to climb, with some vessels potentially departing China with significant empty space through May.”
A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson stated on Wednesday that 30% of shipments to the U.S. from China had been canceled by its customers, noting a sharp increase in demand for shipments from Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
Source: The Loadstar
FAK rates are projected to increase on May 1st, with further hikes expected on May 15th. Ocean carriers have announced a PSS of up to $2400/40’ on their long-term deals starting mid-May, and FAK rates are expected to follow suit into June if the situation does not improve. However, the volume from China remains considerably down, and these rate increases will depend on cargo from Southeast Asia, which, despite an increase in volumes, remains relatively soft compared to the loss of volume in China. Carriers are likely to continue reducing available space to manage capacity and sustain rates.
At Shipco Transport, we are dedicated to maintaining the continuity of our services. We have space protections in place with several carriers to ensure that our weekly LCL services are committed to load. While securing additional space remains challenging due to reduced capacity and blank sailings, our contracts with nearly all Trans-Pacific carriers provide us with a broad range of options. We can continue to support our weekly LCL services and cater to FCL, just as we did during the pandemic when we assisted forwarders who were unable to secure space through their own contracts.
