Despite a year of tariff‑related uncertainty, China’s export engine continues to run at full strength, particularly in the weeks leading up to the Lunar New Year, which begins February 17. This strong pre‑holiday push suggests that U.S. tariffs have not significantly dampened demand.
China’s foreign trade grew 3.8% in 2025 compared to 2024, with exports increasing by 6.1% and imports up 0.5%. Although trade with the U.S. declined by -18.7%, the broader performance shows that China’s foreign trade shifted toward the European Union, Central and South American, and Southeast Asian countries.
Ocean freight rate behavior across key trade lanes also reflected the shift in China’s export patterns. “The container rates to Southeastern countries have been on the high side and remained stable for the whole year of 2025,” said Carl Zhao, Regional Director, North China at Shipco Transport. He noted that container rates from China to Mexico, and the West Coast of South America have also registered significant increases.
According to CNBC reporting, container volumes at China’s largest ports were significantly up year-over-year for the week ending February 1 and well above the 2025 average weekly growth. Zhao pointed out that the Lunar New Year in 2026 will arrive 19 days later than last year. “In 2025, Chinese New Year was on January 28th , so the week starting with February 1 was just starting the very slow season during Chinese New Year.”
Terminals in Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are now facing serious congestion. Several global forwarders have issued advisories advising customers of heavy berth delays. As CNBC reported, ports are dealing with strained terminal capacity, slower gate operations, and intensified yard crowding as vessels and containers have accumulated faster than they can be processed. These operational pressures are now extending inland. Ground transportation costs have risen significantly across the affected regions due to high demand and constrained trucking capacity.
Zhao added that the congestion was not solely due to pre-holiday volume surges. “The main reason for the congestion was that the carriers wanted to stock heavy containers before Chinese New Year, in fear of no volume for their sailings after the holiday,” he said, explaining that carriers had taken on bookings with no consideration of their capacities, rolled the containers, and left them in the terminal. “This also led to the terminal implementing much shorter time allowing the entrance of loaded containers before vessels berth. Thus, the congestion also passed on the CFS and warehouses, making it challenging.”
China’s overall exports increased by 6.1% in 2025, and both carriers and port authorities have also claimed increases in container throughput in 2025. Yet, both global and the smaller local freight forwarders have described 2025 as a difficult year.
This contrast, Zhao said, is largely due to changes in the types of commodities China exports. “The commodities exported have changed from the ‘3 traditional commodities’, i.e. garments, furniture and electronics, to ‘3 new commodities’ i.e. EV cars, Lithium Batteries and Solar Panels,” he noted. In 2025, exports of the new commodities increased by 27.1%, while windmill generator exports increased by 48.7%.
“The manufacturers of these commodities typically sign with the carriers directly, and seldom use freight forwarders,” Zhao observed, noting that subsequently, it would also result in fewer traditional LCL shipments. “The common perception among freight forwarders here is that it would be more challenging in 2026,” he concluded.
Source: Shipco Transport, CNBC