Trans-Pacific container rates climbed sharply over the past week as the industry prepares for an early peak season. Shippers are frontloading goods to get ahead of potential changes to tariffs in July and August.

SONAR and Freightos both report that container rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast have surged in recent days. At the same time, ocean carriers have implemented general rate increases (GRIs) starting June 1. The Freightos Baltic Index for the week ending June 6, including GRIs, saw rates double. Meanwhile, rates to the U.S. East Coast experienced a 60% increase, matching last year’s record highs brought on by early demand and Red Sea disruptions, which also coincided with the strike threat by the International Longshoremen’s Association.

Carriers are planning further GRIs of $1,000–$3,000 per FEU in mid-June and early July. China’s ports are still clearing backlogs caused by a combination of demand slowdowns due to high tariffs, as well as the shift of vessels and equipment to other tradelanes. Judah Levine, chief of research at Freightos, said rate hikes are likely to stick through June and July because of tight capacity and port congestion at several Far East hubs. Rate pressures may ease by mid-July as demand slows and capacity increases, as more ships return to the Trans-Pacific trade.

U.S. ports are already preparing for the wave of incoming containers. Earlier, carriers raised concerns that the rebound in Asia imports could bring about potential congestion challenges. The National Retail Federation has now adjusted its forecast, predicting a smaller-than-expected July peak with volumes -9% lower than last year’s August high and -4% below April levels. The numbers reflect shipper behavior as they halted or reduced orders due to tariffs rising to 145% but have now resumed importing following a reduction in tariffs and a 90-day tariff pause.

The Trans-Pacific demand shifts are also affecting other trade lanes. Freightos reported a 32% jump in Asia-Mediterranean rates per FEU, with further hikes expected mid-month. As the White House continues trade talks with China and the EU, long-term rate relief may hinge on whether tariffs are rolled back.

Source: American Shipper