According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer, global merchandise trade growth has decelerated in the second half of 2025. Referencing current readings, the WTO wrote: “While still above trend, the indices for air freight (102.7) and container shipping (101.7) have seen their values decline over the last three months, indicating a cooling off in the transportation of goods worldwide.”

For container shipping, the softening performance followed a stronger-than-expected 4.9% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, driven by front-loading of U.S. imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

However, as reported by gCaptain, the WTO has revised the forecast and downgraded the full-year outlook, with higher tariffs and persistent trade policy uncertainty expected to weigh on growth in the second half. Growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, followed by a further slowdown to 0.5% in 2026.

The forward-looking barometer readings show that the new export orders index climbed to 102.3, indicating continued growth in global exports, after a period of volatility. “On balance, the indices point to a moderation in the pace of global trade growth,” the WTO wrote.

According to Xeneta’s 2026 Ocean Outlook, a 3% increase in global container shipping demand has been projected. Meanwhile, a report by the American Journal of Transportation noted Xeneta’s assessment that the air cargo industry is generally expecting growth of between 2%-3% in 2026.

Source: World Trade Organization, gCaptain, American Journal of Transportation