Experts at the Journal of Commerce’s Inland Distribution Conference 2024 (Inland24) shared that the U.S. economy is expected to decelerate in 2025, with surface freight markets remaining soft. Paul Bingham, director of global intelligence and analytics for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that strong consumer spending would not continue if unemployment and consumer debt continue to rise.

However, freight rates in the truckload, intermodal, and less-than-truckload (LTL) sectors are expected to improve in 2025, according to Bingham and other speakers. Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior analyst of logistics, Lee Klaskow, believes truckload prices will rise by single-digit percentages next year, but excess capacity is delaying significant increases until late 2025. He said LTL pricing remained robust, but it has become harder to discern year-over-year tonnage growth as Yellow’s collapse last July is still being felt in the sector.

U.S. imports from international shipments have boosted intermodal rail volumes. However, import volumes are predicted to decrease in 2025. Gross Transportation Consulting’s president and Journal of Commerce analyst, Lawrence Gross, said domestic intermodal will need to become more competitive to make up for that shift, especially since there remains ample truck capacity and low rates.

Source: Journal of Commerce