The U.S. suspension of the de minimis exemption on Chinese imports could sharply reduce airfreight demand and rates. Under the de minimis policy, small-value shipments under $800 are exempted from customs filing costs and duties and de minimis shipping became a critical tool in e-commerce supply chains. It also helped drive explosive growth for air cargo in 2024.

According to U.S. Customs & Border Protection, it processed over 4 million de minimis shipments daily, with 88% arriving by air through express carriers, mail, or commercial flights in 2024 compared to 2.8 million shipments a year ago.

The policy change means shippers may shift strategies, moving away from frequent small shipments toward bulk importing, U.S. warehousing, and 3PL services to defer duties and manage distribution domestically. This will likely increase pressure on U.S. warehouse capacity and boost demand for domestic logistics solutions.

More cargo may transition to sea freight however, the overall impact on ocean rates and the demands on capacity will be small. At full capacity, the affected volume would equal 80,000 TEU or 10 medium-sized vessels, a small fraction of global shipping demand.

Source: The Loadstar