The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook frames the global economy as “steady”, but industry analysts caution that this characterization hides a more challenging reality for containerized trade. Much of the optimism is based on calculations of higher-valued technology exports which inflates trade figures without reflecting true transport demand.
The IMF projects global GDP growth of 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026. However, world trade growth is expected to slowdown from 4.1% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. “These dynamics reflect patterns of front-loading and trade flow adjustments to new policies,” the IMF report noted. It said growth will increase to 3.1% in 2027.
Much of the projected trade growth is tied to high‑value, low‑volume technology exports, which inflates the trade figures for containerized volume. As IMF projections are calculated by monetary value rather than TEU, they can overstate shipping demand. Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy, explained: “For example, export growth from Asia (excluding China), of 13.2%, had a roughly 70% reliance on technology exports, while China’s export growth was similarly fueled by technology exports to the Rest of the World.”
As highlighted in a report by CNBC, transportation sectors ranging from ocean carriers to trucking and warehousing depend on physical freight volumes moved or stored and not the monetary value. Sea-Intelligence said that for carriers, the “steady” outlook is misleading and warned of a “double squeeze as they face both a post‑front‑loading slump and structurally higher U.S. tariff costs.
Compounding this pressure is the substantial amount of new vessel capacity entering the market. Linerlytica reported in August 2025 that the global containership orderbook reached a record 10.4 million TEU—the highest level since 2010. The consultancy forecasts a persistent supply–demand imbalance lasting through the end of the decade, raising concerns about rate volatility and prolonged overcapacity.
Cargo volumes may not grow enough to absorb the large amount of new vessel capacity entering the market. Asian container consultancy Linerlytica reported in August 2025 that the containership orderbook had reached a record high of 10.4m TEU, which was the highest level recorded since 2010. Linerlytica forecasted container shipping would face a supply/demand imbalance through the end of the decade.
Source: Sea-Intelligence, IMF, CNBC, Linerlytica