Air cargo demand stayed strong in October, growing for the 15th straight month, but IATA warns that 2025 might be challenging. Global air cargo demand measured in cargo tonne km (CTK) terms rose by 9.8% year-over-year (y/y) in October. Capacity measured in available CTKs increased by 5.9%, and the cargo load factor grew by 1.7 percentage points to reach 47.3%. Air cargo capacity growth was driven by an 8.5% rise in international belly capacity and a 5.6% rise in freighter capacity. IATA reported that global air cargo yields rose 10.6% in October year-over-year (y/y) and is 49% above 2019 levels.

While the 2024 outlook appears strong, IATA’s director general, Willie Walsh, advised that 2025 could face challenges. “While 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, we must look to 2025 with some caution,” he said. Proposed tariffs by the incoming Trump administration on Canada, China, and Mexico may disrupt supply chains and dampen consumer confidence. Walsh noted that the industry’s adaptability will be tested in the face of geopolitical shifts.

Key market indicators showed mixed trends. Industrial production climbed 1.6% in September, while global goods trade rose 2.4%. Walsh explained that businesses are stockpiling inventory ahead of potential disruptions, such as the U.S. port strike. The global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained above 50, signaling growth, but the PMI for new export orders stayed below 50, reflecting ongoing trade uncertainty. Inflation levels varied in October. Inflation in the U.S. rose to 2.6% and the EU to 2.3%, while China’s consumer inflation fell to 0.3%, raising economic slowdown concerns.

Regionally, Latin American carriers led with 18.5% y/y increases in cargo demand in October. Asia-Pacific airlines saw y/y demand grow by 13.4%, North American carriers by 9.5%, and European carriers by 7.6%. Middle Eastern carriers improved by 4.5%, and African airlines recorded 1.6% growth, the lowest among regions.

Source: Air Cargo News