Air cargo capacity across the Middle East is currently operating at approximately 30% below pre‑conflict levels, according to data from Xeneta. The regional conflict is entering its fifth week.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, emphasized that rising costs are only one part of the equation for shippers. Despite higher rates, demand has not waned as shippers continue to lean on airfreight to safeguard market share and service levels, which they also viewed as a priority.
Xeneta reports that this ‘wait-and see’ approach has brought on a degree of short‑term stability in the market as shippers, airlines, and forwarders closely monitor developments in the Middle East. It also noted that the current disruption differs from previous crises in which air cargo served as a relief valve for ocean freight congestion. In the current environment, airlines and air cargo are taking a harder hit.
While higher jet fuel costs have not yet dampened airfreight demand, a prolonged conflict combined with sustained fuel inflation could lead to a decline in volumes. Van de Wouw observed that capacity has already begun shifting toward alternative gateways including Muscat and Jeddah.
As reported by Air Cargo News, citing data from Aevean, several major Middle Eastern airports have recorded sharp year‑over‑year declines in outbound cargo tonnage capacity. The most affected airports include Doha (-77%), Dubai International (-57%), Dubai World Central (-59%), Bahrain International (-99%), and Kuwait International (-100%).
“Tariffs created uncertainty but the fallout here is bigger because of the cost of jet fuel, the potential energy crisis, and inflation growth,” van de Wouw said. “Right now, the air cargo market is suffering from a supply issue – and this will be resolved. But, the longer this recovery takes is going to determine if it becomes a much bigger demand issue.”
He added that airfreight’s longer-term outlook will ultimately depend on the duration of the conflict and its outcomes.
Source: Xeneta, Air Cargo News, Aevean