Rising tensions in the Middle East have sparked new warnings for the global shipping industry. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors and delivers maritime security information, has advised vessels to use caution when passing through the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz.
The UKMTO advisory follows the announcement of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled to take place in Oman on June 15. The U.S. has warned it may take military action if negotiations collapse, while Iran has threatened to strike U.S. bases if provoked.
These developments are critical to global trade because approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption could impact global supply chains and energy prices. “Any attack will have a certain potential to escalate and impact shipping as well as implicate military forces of other countries operating in the area, including the United States,” said Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer, BIMCO. “A full-blown armed conflict between Israel/U.S. and Iran would most certainly effectively close the Straits of Hormuz at least for a period of time and drive up oil prices.”
Recent incidents have already raised red flags, such as Iranian forces detaining cargo ships and accusing them of smuggling. In March, several vessels in the Strait reported GPS interference, raising safety concerns. The latest warnings add to broader concerns about shipping over ongoing instability in the region. Red Sea maritime traffic has rebounded by 60% to approximately 36-37 vessels a day since August 2024. However, this figure is still only half the pre-crisis volume of 72–75 daily transits before the attacks began in late 2023. Ocean carriers have adopted a cautious approach due to the absence of safety guarantees for their crew, ships, and cargo.
On Friday, regional tensions escalated significantly following extensive pre-emptive airstrikes by Israel against Iran. The latest advisory note from the UKMTO said, “The situation remains highly volatile. At present, there is no direct evidence that commercial shipping is being targeted. However, given the proximity of regional flashpoints to major maritime routes and chokepoints, the potential for rapid escalation involving the maritime environment should not be discounted.”
Source: ShippingWatch
