Drewry reports that three million TEUs of new shipping capacity expected in 2025 will not ease the challenges shippers face as disruptions and rising costs are expected to keep freight rates high. Drewry analyzed scenarios with and without potential U.S. East Coast port strikes in January. In both cases, rates are expected to climb. Philip Damas, head of Supply Chain Advisors and Managing Director at Drewry, said a strike would impact U.S. trade and spill over into other markets. Even if the strike does not occur, the European Union’s carbon taxes are set to rise 75% in January, which will keep the pressure on pricing.

Damas noted that global freight rates have climbed 87% between pre-pandemic and 2019, and a further 87% on average in 2024. He said container freight rates would unlikely return to pre-pandemic levels even if the Suez Canal were to reopen. Reopening the Red Sea would boost capacity by
25%; however, Drewry predicts that the Cape of Good Hope routing will continue until at least 2026 because of growing tensions in the Middle East.

The shipping landscape faces more hurdles next year with the reshuffling of carrier alliances. Damas noted MSC’s move toward “a sort of quasi single-carrier network alliance”. He said Gemini’s schedule reliability and on-time performance will be influenced by the level of demand, and cautioned that  “container transshipment operations can quickly get caught up with delays and missed connections”.

Source: The Loadstar