According to Sea-Intelligence, vessel capacity that used to be absorbed by major trade lanes is now spilling into secondary trade lanes. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said the extra capacity brought on by the Red Sea crisis is “effectively saturating the peripheral trades of the global network”.

Sea-Intelligence tracked more than 16,000 vessel transfers across 2024 and 2025. The displacement of global capacity has been largely driven by disruptions, such as Red Sea diversions. “While 2024 was characterized by an injection of capacity into Asia-Europe to manage the Red Sea crisis, current data shows that these trades have reached saturation, pushing excess tonnage into secondary trade lanes,” Murphy said.

Once a key absorber of displaced Asia–North Europe capacity in 2024, the Asia-Mediterranean trade lane has now shifted its role. “The data highlights a structural shift in the Asia-Mediterranean trade lane. Previously a primary absorber of displaced Asia-North Europe capacity in 2024, this trade lane is now actively cascading tonnage out to other lanes. The Mediterranean-North America East Coast trade lane emerged as the top net gainer in 2025-2H,” Murphy notes.

Meanwhile, the Asia-East Coast South America trade lane has become the second-largest net receiver of cascaded capacity cycled out of the main East-West trade lanes. “The data shows this as a permanent structural change, as 97% of the vessels cascaded to Asia-East Coast South America in this period did not redeploy back to their previous trade lanes,” Murphy pointed out.

Recent annoucements from a few ocean carriers indicate plans to resume voyages through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Yet others remain cautious given the fragile security environment. If navigation through the Suez normalizes, the return of these routes could add to the existing overcapacity pressures across major trade lanes.

Source: Sea‑Intelligence