As the July 9 tariff pause imposed by the U.S. approaches, demand for airfreight out of Asia is rising sharply, even as ocean freight volumes fall. Freight forwarders have reported a surge in bookings, not from China, but from markets like Southeast Asia and Taiwan, where capacity is tightening.
An executive at a global forwarder stated that there is a strong push to expedite shipments before the deadline, which has led to Southeast Asia facing a capacity crunch due to limited infrastructure. Airfreight rates out of Taiwan and South Asia are increasing, driven primarily by shipments of AI servers destined for major U.S. tech companies, including Amazon, Google, and Meta. Some manufacturers have shifted production from China back to Taiwan to avoid the tariffs, which has contributed to the spike.
China’s e-commerce demand remains soft, unlike in past years. However, the “China-plus-one” strategy is boosting intra-Asia trade as more components are sourced from China and then transferred to Southeast Asia and Taiwan for final production. According to data provider Rotate’s data, intra-Asia capacity rose 2% in the last week.
Beyond Asia, the unrest in the Middle East has added new uncertainty. Recently, airspace closures forced Qatar Airways to divert or reroute nearly 100 flights. The sudden changes are creating ripple effects across global airfreight operations and will have a significant impact on the freight forwarding market, especially for shipments into Europe.
The second half of 2025 looks unpredictable. Many shippers are canceling split orders and combining shipments into single batches due to uncertain lead times. Traditional peak seasons may not apply this year, and inventory visibility remains a challenge due to frontloading.
Source: The Loadstar
