Ocean and air freight rates have climbed significantly in 2024, driven by unpredictable market dynamics, according to Transport Intelligence (Ti). Ocean freight rates remain 117.6 points above January levels, with no immediate return to pre-crisis levels expected. Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand, highlighted ocean carriers as the year’s “financial winners,” noting their shift from loss-making to record-high rates.

Ti’s Market Sentiment Index showed expectations are for ocean freight rates to rise slightly in Q4 as the market stabilizes. Global headhaul rates in November fell -5.6 points from October, following improved supply chain dynamics and a 4.9% increase in global shipping capacity in Q3. However, low vessel scrappages and high new deliveries suggest liners have bet on future market demand. Global container volumes rose 8.3% year-on-year in Q3, and North American demand surged 18.2%. However, European markets remain subdued due to economic challenges.

Meanwhile, air freight has been a “a beneficiary of uncertainty” since global air rates have progressively risen, Ti pointed out. Global headhaul rates have consistently grown, climbing 5.9% month-to-month, 8.8% quarter-to-quarter, and 4.6% year-over-year. Backhaul routes showed more modest increases, with 3.7% month-to-month, 2.7% quarter-to-quarter gains, and a
-3.2% year-over-year.

Ti cautioned that while overall airfreight growth may appear strong, they do not guarantee market stability. “There are a number of often quite extreme factors driving demand in airfreight, and just because there seem to be quite satisfactory growth rates overall, this does not mean the market is stable,” the company said. EU and U.S. tariffs on Asian imports have made it harder to predict air freight rate trends over the medium to long term, although Ti’s Market Sentiment Index suggests rates will edge higher in the coming months.

Source: The Loadstar