In its October Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has cut its 2026 global trade volume growth projection to 0.5%, down from 1.8% previously projected in August.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted, “Looking to 2026, the fact is there’s so much uncertainty, it’s hard to be conclusive.” She identified strong AI-driven growth and potential tariff reductions as drivers of potential gains, while trade policy uncertainty and barriers could bring about setbacks
For 2025, the WTO anticipates trade volume growth of 2.4%, an increase from its previous forecast of 0.9%, but still below the 2.8% recorded in 2024. “Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
Regionally, Asia and Africa are projected to lead export volume growth in 2025. South and Central America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East should also see signs of moderate gains, while Europe’s export growth is expected to decelerate. North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are forecasted to experience declines, according to the WTO.
In the first half of 2025, global merchandise trade volumes rose 4.9% year-on-year. Contributing factors include the front-loading of imports into the U.S. in anticipation of higher trade tariffs, along with favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as “disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, and strong growth in emerging markets,” the WTO report pointed out.
Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said almost 2 million containers moved through the port in July and August, in his September media briefing. Taking into account the high benchmarks of 2024, he noted expectations for container volumes to ease for the remainder of 2025.
The National Retail Foundation (NRF) also highlighted the fast approaching 90-day tariff pause extension on Chinese imports which are set to expire Nov. 10, unless another extension or a new trade deal with China is reached. Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are anticipated to fall below 2 million TEUs for the remainder of the year according to the October Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates.
“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
Source: WTO, WTO Global Trade Outlook, Port of Los Angeles, NRF