Trade tensions, excess vessel capacity, and softening demand are dampening the container shipping marketing outlook for the second half of 2025. Ocean carriers are adjusting their full-year profit forecasts downwards as these challenges weigh on performance and expectations for a strong peak season diminish.
Japan’s Ocean Network Express (ONE) revised its full-year net profit projection down by $400 million, citing key risks such as ongoing geopolitical risks, volatile market conditions, and continued rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. ONE’s CEO, Jeremy Nixon, noted that the detour alone is tying up about 7% of global container ship capacity and that new vessel deliveries are adding to capacity pressure.
Analysts at Jeffries in their latest container report described current conditions as “stuck between not good and not bad”. They observed that June’s brief rate spike has subsided, with volumes declining and a flat or weak peak season likely. Sea-Intelligence predicts August volumes could fall by -26% year-over-year, triggering more blank sailings.
Linerlytica flagged that U.S. tariffs are now weighing on volumes, especially on the Trans-Atlantic route. The new U.S.-EU trade deal imposing a 15% duty on European goods is expected to reverse the momentum on imports. Imports from Europe rose 8% in the first half of 2025, but Jeffries expects a -10% decline for the second half of the year. Yet, Trans-Atlantic capacity is still 16% higher than last year, deepening concerns of oversupply.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has dropped for eight consecutive weeks, while the August rate hikes announced by carriers are struggling to gain traction amid the widening supply-demand gap. Even if shippers rush orders before China’s Golden Week, analysts have cautioned any surge would likely be brief.
Source: splash247.com
