US imports in July are expected to hit their highest level in at least the past 18 months and their peak for 2025, driven by the Aug. 1 extension granted by the Trump administration before the implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs on a host of US trading partners, a major retail group said Wednesday.
But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker (GPT).
“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect…”
The White House’s unexpected extension of a 90-day pause in new tariffs that were due to take effect July 9 caused the NRF and Hackett to upgrade their import projections for July through October compared with June’s GPT. And while Gold said the brief extension was “greatly appreciated” by retailers, he chided the Trump administration for the seeming whiplash nature of its tariff policy.
“…Uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs,” he said. “…It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.”
Big bump in July forecast
The GPT’s updated forecast calls for 2.36 million TEUs in US imports in July, up almost 11% from the June GPT and surpassing the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024. July is the only month in the second half of 2025 forecast to see year-over-year increases, so far.
In August, retailers expect US imports to reach 2.08 million TEUs, up 5% from the forecast made in June but more than 10% under the 2.32 million TEUs imported in August 2024. September import projections were upgraded to 1.82 million TEUs — up 2.2% from the projection made last month but nearly 20% below year-ago levels.
October’s import forecast increased by just half a percent to 1.81 million TEUs, 19.1% below volumes from October 2024. In its initial forecast for November, the GPT pegs imports at 1.7 million TEUs, down 16.2% year over year.
Amid the forecasts for significant year-over-year import declines for the second half of 2025, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed to supply chain uncertainty exacerbated by shifting tariff policies.
“The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable,” he said. “Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”
The latest GPT projects June’s import volumes will come in at 2.06 million TEUs, up about 2.5% from the forecast made last month. Meanwhile, May’s actual volume of 1.95 million TEUs was about 2% higher than projected in the prior GPT.
As volumes in the trans-Pacific look to retract beyond July, carriers have responded with reductions to capacity, with plans to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea.
The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts.
Source: Journal of Commerce
