Container shipping lines are preparing for a difficult fourth quarter (Q4), as falling demand and rate pressure continue to erode profitability. According to Linerlytica, cargo booking volumes have fallen by 5% to 20% in recent weeks, with Trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, and Latin America routes under significant pressure.

As reported by splash247, although the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) ended an 11-week downtrend with a 30-point uptick, Drewry’s World Container Index dropped -6% with forecasts pointing to continued declines. Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand also warned that Q4 may return to loss-making territory for ocean carriers.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) said it expected a -5.6% drop in total U.S. containerized imports for 2025. While volumes grew 3.6% year-to-date through July, the forecasted -17.5% drop over the final five months of the year signals a sharp reversal in momentum.

Sea-Intelligence said in issue 729 of their Sunday Spotlight report to expect blank sailings for the Golden Week period. “Given the current market conditions and the recent tendency for shipping lines to announce capacity reductions closer to the date of departure during periods of market uncertainty, it is highly likely that more blank sailings will be announced for the 2025 Golden Week period,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.

In addition to rate and volume pressures, the industry faces regulatory headwinds, including the U.S. Trade Representative’s penalties on China-linked vessels slated to start in October.

Source: splash247.com, NRF, Sea-Intelligence