The airfreight industry enters 2025 with cautious optimism despite slowing growth and geopolitical concerns. While 2024 saw significant gains, including 14 straight months of double-digit demand growth, December showed signs of cooling with just 6% higher tonnage compared to the previous year, according to WorldACD.

Global spot rates were 15% higher in December than the previous 12 months, according to Xeneta’s end-of-year market report. However, early January recorded a -25% decline in average spot rates, accompanied by signals of subdued manufacturing, especially in Europe. There has also been softer demand on key corridors like China-U.S. where rates declined -9% from December’s peak.

E-commerce remains a bright spot for airfreight, projected to grow 14% annually through 2026. Yet the sector’s increasing reliance on these volumes makes it vulnerable to policy changes, particularly regarding Chinese platforms. “But with reports of countries aiming to crack down on the Chinese e-commerce platforms, for example, if this was to happen it would have a sizeable impact on markets around the world,” pointed out Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw.

Looking ahead, Xeneta forecasts a 4-6% growth in 2025, outpacing supply growth of 3-4%. Meanwhile, airlines are cautiously going into the tender season. Shippers are increasingly favoring longer-term contracts, with 63% of Q4 2024 agreements extending beyond one year. “The lesson these market conditions are forcing stakeholders to learn is that they cannot rely solely on historical trends as a foundation for purchasing decisions,” said van de Wouw.

Source: The Loadstar