The airfreight industry enters 2025 with cautious optimism despite slowing growth and geopolitical concerns. While 2024 saw significant gains, including 14 straight months of double-digit demand growth, December showed signs of cooling with just 6% higher tonnage compared to the previous year, according to WorldACD.
Global spot rates were 15% higher in December than the previous 12 months, according to Xeneta’s end-of-year market report. However, early January recorded a -25% decline in average spot rates, accompanied by signals of subdued manufacturing, especially in Europe. There has also been softer demand on key corridors like China-U.S. where rates declined -9% from December’s peak.
E-commerce remains a bright spot for airfreight, projected to grow 14% annually through 2026. Yet the sector’s increasing reliance on these volumes makes it vulnerable to policy changes, particularly regarding Chinese platforms.
Looking ahead, Xeneta forecasts a 4-6% growth in 2025, outpacing supply growth of 3-4%. Meanwhile, airlines are cautiously going into the tender season. Shippers are increasingly favoring longer-term contracts, with 63% of Q4 2024 agreements extending beyond one year.
Source: The Loadstar