Sea-Intelligence warns that the continued injection of capacity by carriers will have a “destabilizing impact”. In issue 739 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, it was noted that vessel utilization on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound route was under pressure.

The analyst said spot rates from Rotterdam to New York were at historic lows and pointed to negative year-over-year demand growth in September 2025. Meanwhile, schedules over the next 12 weeks still show carriers as injecting substantial capacity into rotation.

With an 80 percent correlation between utilization and spot rates, Sea Intelligence’s model suggests that rates could theoretically plunge toward negative territory. “While rates will obviously not turn negative, the model’s trajectory indicates the market is poised to become so dire that shipping lines will be forced to withdraw significant capacity, to establish a better balance,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.

“Cargo owners on the trade should therefore prepare for the strong likelihood that many planned vessel departures in the coming months will be cancelled,” he concluded.

As The Maritime Executive reported, the global container ship orderbook has surpassed 10 million TEU, the highest in history. MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company became the first container shipping line to operate a fleet exceeding 7 million TEUs capacity, giving it control of 21% of the world’s total container fleet. Alphaliner reported that South Korea’s HMM has surpassed 1 million TEU of operated capacity for the first time, making it the world’s eighth-largest carrier.

Source: Sea-Intelligence, The Maritime Executive, Alphaliner