Global trade growth is set to slow considerably in 2026, according to the latest global trade outlook from the World Trade Organization (WTO). The agency has projected world merchandise trade growth of 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen from 138 commercial vessels per day to near zero. WTO has said the region accounts for 7.4% of global transport services exports and functions as a key hub connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa.

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries 20% of global oil consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The conflict has triggered the largest supply disruption with global consequences. “The loss of these flows has tightened markets significantly, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and driving even sharper increases in refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG),” the IEA wrote.

The WTO has projected that in a high‑energy‑price scenario, services trade growth would slow to 4.1% in 2026, from a baseline forecast of 4.8%.

Under the baseline scenario, Asia is set to lead global merchandise trade growth in 2026, with imports rising 3.3% and exports 3.5%. Africa and South America are also expected to post strong gains, while Europe and the Middle East are likely to lag. North American imports are forecasted to remain flat, and the CIS region is expected to contract on the import side. Least‑developed countries are projected to outperform the global average, with imports up 4.5% and exports rising 2.9%.

Under a high-energy-price scenario, import growth would be most affected in fuel‑dependent regions such as Asia and Europe, while fuel‑exporting economies would benefit from higher income and import demand.

Source: World Trade Organization, International Energy Agency