Ocean Freight Market Softens but Structural Pressures Keep Rates Elevated

Drewry’s latest World Container Index (WCI) fell by 1%, marking its third consecutive weekly decrease. As reported by Drewry, the decrease reflects lower pricing on Asia–Europe, Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic trade routes. “Despite elevated fuel costs and ongoing geopolitical risks, rates remain under sustained downward pressure due to excess capacity and low demand,” noted Drewry.

Carriers are responding by managing supply through blank sailings. According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, seven blank sailings have been announced for the coming week on the Asia-Europe trade. In May, effective capacity is projected to decline -3% month-on-month on Asia–North Europe routes, and -10% month-on-month on Asia–Mediterranean services.

European trade lanes are weakening faster than U.S. routes, in part due to softer seasonal demand. However, reporting from American Shipper indicated that the lowering of rates should not be taken as a sign that the market is returning to pre-crisis conditions. Alternative routings which carriers have had to implement while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, continue to represent costly operational workarounds.

On the Trans-Pacific, carriers have announced eight blank sailings for the coming week. Yet, effective capacity is expected to increase 11% month-on-month on Asia to the U.S. East Coast services, and 6% month-on-month on Asia to the U.S. West Coast routes in May, Drewry’s data shows.

According to Xeneta’s Chief Analyst Peter Sand, Asia-U.S West Coast rates are still more than 50% above pre-crisis levels, while Asia-U.S. East Coast rates are up 46%. “These rates have reached a high plateau, sustained by ongoing congestion at Southeast Asian transshipment hubs and the knock-on effects of longer transit times across the network,” Sand said.

A recent analysis from Sea-intelligence found that up to 6% of capacity is being absorbed by vessel delays. Its March 2026 global schedule reliability recorded on-time performance at 62.2%. Sea‑Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy noted that while carriers are making incremental improvements, on-time performance has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. “Instead, global schedule reliability has settled into a lower range of 50‑65%, alongside an increase in the average magnitude of late vessel arrivals to roughly 5 days,” he said.

Source: Drewry, American Shipper, Xeneta, Sea-Intelligence

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