The China-Mexico trade route has grown rapidly in 2024, with shipping volumes up 18.9% in the first nine months compared to 2023, according to Xeneta. June saw a record 135,724 TEUs moved between the two countries.
This rapid growth has driven significant rate volatility. Spot rates on the China-Mexico West Coast route peaked six times in 2024, compared to three peaks on the China-U.S. West Coast trade, Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand, said. Sand explained that the China-Mexico route’s “immaturity” and smaller scale of volumes make it more sensitive to pricing fluctuations compared to major fronthaul trades
Looking ahead to 2025, the trade route faces challenges such as limitations in infrastructure and potential bottlenecks as import volumes continue rising. Geopolitical tensions could further disrupt trade, particularly related to the bypassing of tariffs by way of Mexico into the U.S. Despite the recent cooling of spot rates, Sand warns that volatility is likely to persist in 2025.
Source: gCaptain
However, these ambitions are not without challenges. In recent months, Mexican ports have experienced significant congestion. For instance, Lazaro Cardenas has seen transshipment services delayed by 15 to 30 days. This congestion is attributed not only to a surge in freight from China but also to increased cargo from the United States.
Following the East Coast port strike and adverse weather conditions impacting U.S. Gulf Coast services, many customers opted to reroute their shipments to Latin America via Mexico. This included both cross-border (INL) movements and ocean freight, pushing Mexico's port infrastructure to its limits.
Given these developments, it is imperative for Mexico to reassess its current port capacity to accommodate this growing demand. By 2025, a clearer picture should emerge as to whether Mexican ports can effectively evolve into a new logistics hub for South America.
