U.S. container import volumes are facing growing pressure from tariffs and rising fuel costs, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, as reported by gCaptain.
The NRF said trade policy uncertainty remains a key challenge, with a temporary 10% global tariff still in effect, despite the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Additionally, the U.S. has indicated it would apply 50% tariffs on exports from any country found supplying military weapons to Iran.
The NRF also noted that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing bunker fuel costs higher, increasing shipping costs worldwide, even though the U.S. sources only a small share of its containerized goods directly from the Middle East.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, emphasized that global supply chains remain highly interconnected. “The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett highlighted that many Asian ports rely heavily on fuel supplies from the Persian Gulf and could see shortages if the conflict persists. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc also warned that the extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted fuel supplies could potentially create an additional bottleneck. Carriers could start to slow steam or blank sailings to reduce fuel consumption, and that would ultimately push up rates.
“Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users,” Hackett said
In February, U.S. ports (excluding New York/New Jersey) recorded a -7.5% month‑over‑month decline and a -4.2% year‑over‑year decrease, in part due to the slowdown in manufacturing activity, which typically accompanies the Lunar New Year. Import volumes in the first half of 2026 are projected to be down -1.8% year-over-year.
Source: gCaptain, National Retail Federation