Air cargo operations across the Gulf were disrupted again following a wave of aerial threats on May 4, after UAE hubs reopened on May 2. This has raised concerns about the ceasefire, which the U.S. maintains is still in effect.
As reported by Air Cargo Week, limited Gulf operations and ongoing airspace closures are estimated to have affected approximately 13% of global air freight capacity.
At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue tightening global jet fuel supply. Reduced availability of refined fuel is prompting airlines to scale back passenger services, which is further constraining belly cargo capacity, particularly on Asia–Europe routes.
Following the International Energy Agency’s assessment of potential jet fuel shortages, IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said, “We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel. This is already happening in parts of Asia.”
Subsequently, shipper behavior is changing. According to a report by The Loadstar, forwarders are increasingly seeing shippers in Asia-Pacific turn to Sea-Air routings via the U.S. West Coast for shipments to Europe. In addition to reduced air capacity, elevated airfreight rates, and surcharges, this behavioral shift is also driven by extended ocean transit times on Asia–Europe routes due to ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea. According to a report by splash247, the average distance of global seaborne trade has increased by 10%, according to new data from Clarksons Research.
Shipco’s Global COO – Airfreight, Kim Ekstroem, noted that these market conditions are also affecting shipment profiles. “We are seeing more requests for larger shipments, which are increasingly difficult to accommodate under current capacity constraints,” he said. “In some cases, forwarders are moving cargo from ocean to air as a practical solution, while others are turning to Sea‑Air options to maintain cargo flow and delivery timelines.”
Ekstroem added that Sea‑Air solutions are serving as an alternative, offering a viable middle ground when traditional ocean freight or direct airfreight may not provide the optimal solution under the current circumstances.
Ongoing restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to limit the movement of crude oil and refined products. Energy prices are expected to remain elevated, unlikely to return to pre‑conflict levels in the near term. IATA had previously warned that rebuilding fuel inventories and airline schedules could take months, and prices would remain elevated for a period. Estimates place damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure at more than $50 billion.
Source: Air Cargo Week, IATA, The Loadstar, splash247