The 12-month trade truce between the U.S. and China, coming into effect on November 10, has brought temporary relief to the global shipping market. Amongst other measures, both countries have agreed to the suspension of reciprocal port fees and a 10% reduction of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. 

Despite these steps, analysts warn that the tactical pause offers little long-term certainty for carriers and shippers.

While the immediate future will see the implementation of tariff adjustments, as SeaTrade Maritime News reported, the U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the administration’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs in a series of executive orders issued earlier this year. A ruling is anticipated in early 2026, though the exact timeline is still unclear.

According to Xeneta, the temporary de-escalation of trade tensions is unlikely to reverse the ongoing decline in demand for ocean container shipping for Trans-Pacific routes. “Tariffs are still high despite the truce and U.S. shippers will use the first half of 2026 to draw down inventories built up through frontloading imports earlier in the year to protect supply chains in the wake of the escalating trade war,” said  Emily Stausbøl, Xeneta’s Senior Shipping Analyst, in an October 31^st press release.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates and producer of the Global Port Tracker for the National Retail Federation (NRF), emphasized that inconsistent tariff policies have created a volatile planning environment. This leaves both importers and ocean carriers without a stable framework for long-term planning.

“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain. Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026,” Hackett said.

Capacity management remains a strategic focal point for carriers. In its November 7 shipping market update, Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, reported that offered capacity on major fronthaul trades is down compared to a month ago, despite slight increases on select lanes.

Sand said: “Clearly, carriers are managing capacity very carefully at an important time of year ahead of 2026 contract tenders.” He went on to note, “Carriers will be pleased with their work of late, but they are battling subdued demand no matter how well they manage capacity, so it is likely gravity starts to win and rates fall back.”

Looking ahead, a report by Safety4sea cited Xeneta’s 2026 Ocean Outlook, which projects a 3% increase in global container shipping demand, while fleet capacity is forecast to grow by 3.6%. The global container order book for future delivery has surpassed 10 million TEUs.

Alphaliner reported on a post on the social media platform X that MSC has become the first container carrier to reach an overall fleet capacity of 7 million TEUs, putting it ahead of its nearest rival, Maersk, by more than 2 million TEUs.

Source: Seatrade Maritime, Xeneta press release, National Retail Federation, Xeneta market update, Safety4Sea, Alphaliner