Middle East Oil Flows Face Risk of Simultaneous Disruptions

The reimposition of a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports has intensified tensions across key global energy corridors, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warning it could interrupt energy exports across the Middle East. As reported by ShippingWatch, citing Reuters, the threats have been deemed as credible.

According to reporting from splash247, Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi movement to prepare for the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical artery for Red Sea oil flows.

Missile and drone systems have reportedly been deployed in proximity to the waterway. Houthi forces are said to be awaiting direction to initiate attacks on commercial shipping should there be U.S. strikes on Iranian power infrastructure.

The strategic value of the Bab el-Mandeb has grown significantly as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. A substantial volume of Gulf oil exports has been diverted to the Red Sea, with the corridor now estimated to handle approximately 7% of global energy supply, according to reporting by ShippingWatch, citing Reuters.

Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would affect both of the Middle East’s primary oil export routes. This would place considerable strain on Saudi Arabia’s ability to serve Asian markets, particularly as exports via the East-West pipeline to Yanbu are already nearing maximum capacity, according to reporting by splash247.

Saudi Arabia has indicated the risk of escalation is serious and noted in assessments that Houthi forces are closely coordinating with Iran on developments in the Red Sea, according to reporting by Reuters, cited by ShippingWatch.

Reporting from SupplyChain Brain, citing Oxford Economics, highlighted diesel as the fuel most exposed to supply strain due to its central role in freight transportation.

Source: ShippingWatch, splash247, SupplyChainBrain

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