A gradual return to stability across global supply chains appears to be underway, but financial recovery for freight forwarders is expected to lag behind operational improvements. As reported by Air Cargo News, citing OntegosCloud CEO Oliver Gritz, progress in the U.S.–Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could restore a key trade corridor. However, any relief in market conditions is unlikely to translate into immediate improvements in forwarder profitability.
According to Gritz, as reported by Air Cargo News, operational recovery typically usually occurs faster than costs normalize. He said this leaves forwarders operating in a more complex commercial environment, creating a mismatch, with forwarders under pressure to meet normalized pricing expectations while still absorbing elevated costs.
These costs include higher fuel prices, increased insurance premiums, disruption-related surcharges, and contractual commitments negotiated under more volatile market conditions, many of which do not unwind at the same pace as operational recovery.
During the Hormuz crisis, carriers implemented a range of surcharges and pricing measures to offset rising expenses. According to reporting from FreightWaves, Hapag-Lloyd estimated that the Middle East conflict increased its costs by approximately $40 million to $50 million per week, prompting the introduction of contingency and emergency charges to recover a portion of the expenses. Similarly, CNBC reported that higher oil prices had increased Maersk’s operating costs by around $500 million per month. The carrier emphasized that such costs would need to be passed on to customers rather than absorbed internally.
Analysis from Xeneta suggests that a full recovery in container shipping may be at least three months away. Meanwhile, reporting from Freightos indicated it would take “several weeks for daily transits to recover to half of the pre-war norm, and much longer, possibly six months, for oil flows to normalize”. Freightos noted that even as fuel costs begin to ease, many contract-based shippers are still expected to face elevated bunker adjustment factors (BAFs) into the third quarter of 2026.
As reported by Air Cargo News, Gritz emphasized that in this environment, the key differentiator will be how effectively logistics providers maintain pricing discipline, protect margins, and convert operational recovery into financial performance.
Source: Air Cargo News, American Shipper, CNBC, Xeneta, Freightos